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Good morning. Nvidia didn't just pop on earnings, it broke out and held. Today brings the Fed's newest chair to the microphone for the first time.
The Market Gauge
The S&P 500 closed at 7,730.99, up 0.72%. The Nasdaq composite closed at 26,541.35, up 1.57%, the best performer of the four. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,569.44, up 0.20%. The Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, rose 0.28%.
Nvidia led the charge, clearing its exact buy point on heavy volume after Wednesday night's beat-and-raise report. Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta each gapped up more than 20% on their own earnings, fueling a powerful software rally. Away from those two groups and a handful of mining stocks, breadth was more mediocre, IBD called it a "ho-hum" session for everything else.
Beginner note: yesterday's radar pick, Salesforce, gapped up over 20% on its earnings report. That's a real, legitimate earnings-driven move, but IBD is now flagging Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta as "risky at this point" for new buyers. A 20%+ one-day gap pushes a stock miles outside the normal 5% buy zone above its pivot, so buying it there means paying up for a move that's already happened rather than catching the breakout itself. It's a good real-time example of why the buy zone exists in the first place.
On today's calendar
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech (10:00 AM ET). The newest Federal Reserve chair addresses the Fed's annual policy symposium for the first time. Investors will parse every line for hints on whether a rate move is likely at the September 15-16 meeting.
Consumer Sentiment, final reading (10:00 AM ET). The University of Michigan's last word on how consumers are feeling about the economy this month, landing right alongside Warsh's speech.
A busy morning of earnings reactions. Marvell fell despite beating estimates, now testing its 50-day line. Elastic surged, gapping above a handle buy point. Affirm jumped on a possible breakout. Workday wavered after underwhelming guidance, and Rubrik tumbled despite beating on both earnings and revenue.
On the radar: Nvidia
$NVDA ( ▼ 1.25% ) closed Thursday at 227.98, up 8.74%, clearing its exact 227.92 cup-with-handle buy point on volume of 297.2 million shares, about 65% above Wednesday's already-elevated total. Yesterday's brief flagged that Nvidia has a recent history of falling the day after it reports, and that today's actual reaction, not the after-hours pop, would be what mattered. This is what a real confirmation looks like: instead of reversing, the stock broke out on some of its heaviest volume of the year.
Why it's worth watching: a breakout that holds through the full regular session, on volume well above average, is the textbook follow-through IBD looks for after an earnings gap. Compare it to yesterday's beginner note above: Nvidia cleared its pivot and is still inside a reasonable buy zone, while Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta already gapped well past theirs. Same week, same kind of catalyst, two different stages of the same story.
ONE FOR THE ROAD: With Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta all extended after their gaps, would you wait for a pullback to consider them, or pass entirely until a new base forms? Reply and let me know.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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