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The best influencer marketing advice never comes from a report
Think about the last thing that got you fired up about your job this year. Odds are it didn't come from a report. It came from someone who does the job, saying what happened when they tried it.
So we've filled a day with people like that.
Maya Shaff, ŌURA. Leah Walker, Adobe. Georgia Humphries, Stanley 1913. Enara Roy, Halfday. Tyler Vaught, Edelman. Josh Rangel, Ogilvy. Sarah Whittle, ex-Crocs and Duolingo.
And that's just the first wave of speakers.
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Good morning. The September jobs report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, and Tesla's delivery numbers arrive around the same time, so the first hour may set the tone for the whole day.
The Market Gauge
Stocks finished Thursday with small gains after a shaky start. The S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 7,666.45, the Nasdaq added 0.04% to 26,871.60, and the Dow gained 20.51 points, or 0.04%, to 50,926.56. The small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 0.35%.
The story was Treasury yields. The 10-year yield touched 5.34% in the morning, its highest in about 22 years, then reversed and closed down six basis points at 5.23%. The two-year yield fell 10 basis points to about 4.79%, and futures traders cut the odds of an Oct. 28 Fed rate hike to 24%, from 37.6% a day earlier. The S&P 500 dipped below its 50-day moving average during the day before recovering, and the Russell 2000 bounced after testing its 200-day line. Chip and software stocks led, Micron rose 3% after its record quarter, and crude oil climbed 2.7% to $92.87. After the close, Nike reported mixed results and weak guidance, and the stock fell sharply in late trading.
IBD's read: a modest bounce off key support, not an all-clear. Aggressive investors could have bought a stock or two, but should be ready to step back out, because a break below the S&P 500's 50-day line is still a real possibility.
Beginner note: a moving average is a support level only until it isn't. Watch how the index behaves at the line, not just whether it touches it. Thursday's dip below and close back above is the kind of test buyers want to see.
On today's calendar
September jobs report, 8:30 a.m. ET. The Labor Department's monthly count of jobs added and the unemployment rate. Economists expect about 90,000 new jobs and a 4.1% jobless rate (IBD). A hot number could push yields back up; a soft one could extend Thursday's relief.
Tesla third-quarter deliveries, early morning. How many cars Tesla handed to buyers from July through September. Tesla's own analyst consensus is 461,974 vehicles, down 7% from a year earlier. Deliveries are a quick check on demand ahead of the full quarterly earnings report.
Factory orders, 10:00 a.m. ET. The Census Bureau's report on manufacturing shipments and new orders. It moves markets less than the jobs data, but it adds detail on how busy U.S. factories are.
Nike at the open. The first regular-session trade after Thursday night's weak guidance. Watch whether the drop holds or buyers step in, a useful lesson in how the market prices forecasts as much as past results.
On the radar: Lumentum
$LITE ( ▲ 7.67% ) Lumentum Holdings makes lasers and optical parts that move data as light through data centers and telecom networks, a key supplier for the AI build-out. The IBD 50 stock jumped 7.67% Thursday to 1,045.78, from 971.26, on volume about 62% above its daily average. That move closed it above the 1,000 level, where it had stalled several times, and above a 1,026.76 handle buy point in a consolidation going back to May (IBD). It finished about 1.9% above that buy point, after pulling back from an intraday high of 1,078.04.
Why it's worth watching: a clean breakout has two parts, a close above the buy point and heavy volume behind it. Lumentum showed both. The usual buy zone runs up to 5% above the buy point, about 1,078 here, so the stock is still inside it. Buying much past that is called chasing, and it leaves less room before a normal pullback triggers your sell rule.
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Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
The ice cream shop that makes money when it's cold
28 Wishes sells ice cream in Los Angeles. Below 70°F, sales fall about 20%. So the owners put about $20 a day into Kalshi weather markets, taking the cold side. The days that keep customers away now pay something back. See how other owners are doing it
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