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Good morning. One day after the Fed hike knocked the market down, stocks turned right back around, a reminder that one session rarely tells the whole story.
The Market Gauge
The Nasdaq composite jumped 1.7% Thursday to 26,418.30, reclaiming its 50-day, 21-day, and 10-day moving averages in one session. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,637.76, closing back above its 50-day line. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged with a 0.6% gain to 51,778.04, led by Nvidia, Cisco Systems, and Amazon, each up more than 2%.
Semiconductors led the rebound: Intel jumped nearly 8% and AMD gained more than 6%, both clearing recent highs. The 10-year Treasury yield eased more than six basis points to 4.94%. The improved technical picture prompted IBD to raise its recommended market exposure back up to 60%-80%, from the cautious 40%-60% stance it had held heading into Wednesday's Fed decision.
Beginner note: Wednesday's Fed-day drop and Thursday's sharp rebound are a good reminder that the market often needs more than one session to work through a single piece of news. Judging a headline by the very next day's reaction, in either direction, can be misleading.
On today's calendar
Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET): a Federal Reserve report on how much U.S. factories, mines, and utilities produced last month, a read on the health of the industrial side of the economy.
Leading Economic Index (10:00 AM ET): the Conference Board's blend of ten forward-looking indicators, built to signal turning points in the economy before they show up elsewhere.
Quadruple witching. Today is the quarterly expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single-stock futures, all at once. It can bring a burst of extra volume, especially near the 4:00 PM close, that has nothing to do with any company's fundamentals.
On the radar: Deere & Company
$DE ( ▼ 0.24% ) makes the tractors and heavy equipment that show up on nearly every large farm and construction site in the country. The stock rallied 2.4% Thursday to $685.63, holding inside its buy zone after breaking out of a cup-with-handle base at a 660.70 buy point. It's now roughly 3% above that buy point, well within the 5% window IBD considers a proper entry, and sits just under its 52-week high of $705.88.
Why it's worth watching: yesterday's radar stock, Bloom Energy, was building a handle that was technically too low in its base to count as valid yet. Deere is the other side of that same lesson, a breakout that already cleared a real buy point on real volume, and is still inside the window where buying doesn't mean chasing. Telling "close to a pattern" apart from "confirmed out of one" is a habit Month 4's chart-pattern lessons are built around.
ONE FOR THE ROAD
The market fell hard Wednesday and rallied just as hard Thursday. If you'd only seen Wednesday's close, would you have made a different call than if you'd waited for Thursday's? Reply and tell us.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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