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Good morning. The big indexes barely moved Thursday, but the average stock slipped, and two economic reports land before 10 AM ET.
The Market Gauge
The S&P 500 dipped 1.90 points (0.02%) to 7,704.13. The Nasdaq composite edged up 3.34 points (0.01%) to 26,939.37, still close to Tuesday’s record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 161.61 points (0.31%) to 51,349.98 and touched a three-month low during the day, as did the small-cap Russell 2000.
The pressure came from bonds and oil again. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.16%, another 19-year high, and U.S. crude climbed 2.7% to $94.61 a barrel. Stocks opened lower and recovered from their morning lows to finish mixed. After the close, Akamai Technologies jumped more than 20% in extended trading on a seven-year, $11.6 billion cloud deal with Anthropic, and Costco’s fiscal fourth-quarter results came in slightly ahead of estimates.
Investor’s Business Daily’s read: the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have held up well given how far yields and oil have run, but it is hard for stocks to make progress against those headwinds. IBD notes that anyone who bought in the past couple of days is probably flat or down, and suggests keeping a watchlist ready in case this pullback turns into renewed strength.
Beginner note: The S&P 500 gives its biggest companies the most weight, so a handful of giants can hold it steady. The equal-weight version, which counts every company the same, fell 0.5% Thursday to a three-month low. When the equal-weight index lags, the typical stock is doing worse than the headline number suggests.
On today’s calendar
Durable goods orders, 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department’s early read on orders for long-lasting products such as machinery, aircraft and appliances. Businesses order these when they expect demand to hold up, so the report is a quick check on business confidence.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final), 10:00 AM ET. A monthly survey of how households feel about their finances and the economy. Traders also watch its inflation-expectations figures, which matter more than usual with yields this high.
Akamai and Costco at the open. Both reported news after Thursday’s close. Watch whether Akamai holds its after-hours jump once regular trading starts; a big overnight gain can grow or fade in the first hour.
On the radar: Taiwan Semiconductor
$TSM ( ▲ 0.9% ) Taiwan Semiconductor is the world’s largest contract chipmaker. Companies such as Apple and Nvidia design their own chips, then pay TSMC to manufacture them. The stock is on the IBD 50 and IBD’s Leaderboard and Long-Term Leaders lists.
Shares rose 1% (4.58 points) to 451.15 on Thursday. Many chip stocks have been pulling back this week, but IBD points out that TSM has held above its short-term highs from August and September. IBD sees it as buyable now or on a move above Tuesday’s high of 452.88. The traditional cup-base buy point is 479, according to MarketSurge. That is also the stock’s 52-week high, about 6% above Thursday’s close.
Why it’s worth watching: This is relative strength in action. When a stock holds its ground while its group pulls back, big investors are often still buying it. It also shows the choice between an early entry (452.88) and the official buy point (479). The early entry gets you in at a lower price, but with less confirmation. With yields at a 19-year high, whichever you choose, decide where you would sell before you buy.
How useful was today's Before the Bell?
ONE FOR THE ROAD
When a stock offers an early entry below its official buy point, do you take it or wait for the breakout, and why?
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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