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Good morning. Thursday was a big up day, and Broadcom's actual reaction gave us a real answer to yesterday's question. Today brings the week's single biggest event: the official August jobs report lands at 8:30 AM ET, before the market even opens.
The Market Gauge
Here's where Thursday finished:
S&P 500: 7,747.71 (+1.06%)
Nasdaq: 26,584.06 (+1.40%)
Dow: 53,686.11 (+1.18%, its best day in about a month)
The rally came almost entirely from the Fed. Governor Christopher Waller said he'd be "inclined to support" holding rates steady this month unless inflation data surprises to the upside. That one comment did more to move the market than the actual economic data released Thursday: the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.77% from Wednesday's multi-year high, and fed funds futures traders cut the odds of a September rate hike to about 50%, down sharply from roughly 63% the day before. The data itself was solid on its own, jobless claims stayed low at 206,000 and the ISM Services Index rose to 55.4%, a 26th straight month of expansion, but it was Waller's words that actually drove the tape.
Broadcom, yesterday's radar stock, gave us the real answer: the stock fell about 2.7% Thursday despite Wednesday's genuine earnings beat, exactly because the guidance came in soft. Beat the quarter, disappoint on the outlook, and the market can still sell the stock.
Beginner note: Thursday is a clean example of a broader truth. The market usually reacts more to a single, credible signal about the future (a Fed official's words, a company's guidance) than to a pile of data about the past. Learning to weigh "what does this tell us about what's coming" over "what already happened" is a skill that compounds.
On today's calendar
August jobs report, 8:30 AM ET. The month's single most important economic release. Estimates cluster in the 50,000-90,000 new-jobs range depending on the source, with unemployment expected to hold around 4.1%. It matters more than usual this time: July actually lost 23,000 jobs (versus roughly 85,000 expected), May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, and this week's ADP report showed the weakest private hiring since January. A soft number would extend that trend; a strong one would be a real surprise.
On the radar: Snowflake
$SNOW ( ▼ 1.64% ) runs a cloud platform companies use to store and analyze their data, increasingly marketed as an "AI Data Cloud" as customers plug AI tools into it. It reported fiscal second-quarter results Wednesday after the close: revenue of $1.55 billion, up 35% from a year ago and above the $1.48 billion expected, adjusted earnings of $0.62 a share versus $0.45 expected, and product revenue accelerating for a third straight quarter. Management also raised full-year guidance, both the revenue outlook and the profit-margin target moved up. The stock jumped roughly 16.5% Thursday, touching a fresh 52-week high intraday.
Why it's worth watching: put this right next to Broadcom from yesterday. Same basic setup, a real beat on the quarter that just ended, but completely different stock reactions, because Snowflake also raised its outlook while Broadcom's guidance fell short. Beat and raise tends to work; beat and merely hold steady, or beat and guide light, often doesn't. That's the single most useful distinction in reading any earnings reaction.
ONE FOR THE ROAD
Before 8:30 AM: do you think August's jobs number comes in stronger or weaker than the roughly 50,000-90,000 range analysts expect, given July's outright loss and this week's soft ADP report? There's no wrong answer, the point is building the habit of forming a view before the data lands. Reply with your call.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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