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Good morning. Friday's bounce patched up some of last week's damage, and now the market has a huge week of earnings ahead, starting with Nvidia on Wednesday. Monday itself is quiet, more a settling-in day than a catalyst day.
The Market Gauge
The S&P 500 closed at 7,674.37, up 0.43%. The Nasdaq composite closed at 26,180.46, up 0.43%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,277.01, up 0.98%, its best day of the week. The Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, rose 0.85%.
Friday was a recovery day after Thursday's selloff. A weaker dollar lifted gold, copper, and bitcoin, and crypto-linked stocks jumped along with it. Chip and software names lagged the broader bounce, with Nvidia extending a six-day losing streak as it tests a key short-term trend line ahead of Wednesday's earnings report.
Beginner note: IBD tracks a stock's 21-day line, a short-term trend gauge, alongside the more familiar 50-day line. Losing the 21-day line in a single selloff isn't a big deal on its own, but regaining it in the next session or two is a mildly encouraging sign that the pullback didn't do lasting damage. Every major index except the Nasdaq reclaimed its 21-day line on Friday, IBD's way of saying the rally "bent but didn't break" last week.
On today's calendar
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 AM ET): a single number built from roughly 85 separate economic indicators, meant to summarize the whole economy's momentum in one reading. It rarely moves markets on its own, more a health-check than a headline.
A quiet start to a loud week. Nvidia headlines a stretch of major earnings starting Wednesday night, with CrowdStrike, Salesforce, Workday, Okta, Rubrik, and SentinelOne also reporting this week. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole speech Friday. Today itself has no major scheduled catalyst.
New tariffs on Canadian goods took effect Saturday. Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada broke down last week, and 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods are now in place. Canada has vowed to match them dollar for dollar. Worth watching for any read-through into materials and industrial names today.
On the radar: Ero Copper
$ERO ( ▼ 0.28% ) mines copper, the metal at the center of both the electrification buildout and the AI data-center boom, since data centers are heavy users of copper wiring and cabling. Friday the stock jumped 9.44% to close at 39.42, a fresh 52-week high, on volume of 3.84 million shares, more than double the prior session's. The move cleared a 36.85 buy point from a cup-with-handle base, and its relative strength line, which tracks the stock against the broader market, hit a new high the same day. It carries a 99 Composite Rating and a 99 Earnings Per Share Rating, both the best possible scores on IBD's 1-99 scale, and Wall Street expects its third-quarter profit to jump 339% to $1.19 a share.
Why it's worth watching: a top-rated stock breaking out on more than double its normal volume is about as clean a leadership signal as this methodology produces. One caution worth learning from it too: Friday's spike pushed the stock above the ideal 5% buy zone above its pivot (up to about 38.69), so as of today it's technically extended. Buying an extended stock means paying up for a move that's already happened, one of the more common beginner mistakes even on a genuinely strong stock like this one.
ONE FOR THE ROAD: IBD says the rally "bent but didn't break" last week. Does that kind of language change how you'd approach the market this week, or do you wait for Nvidia's earnings Wednesday to actually decide? Reply and let me know.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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