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Good morning. Friday's session was a rate-scare day: a hawkish speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pushed rate-hike odds higher and knocked stocks lower into the close. Over the weekend, the U.S. carried out a strike inside Iran, so expect some added volatility today as that news gets digested. Today's calendar itself is quiet, the real economic action starts tomorrow.
The Market Gauge
Here's where Friday finished:
S&P 500: 7,711.76 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq: 26,402.42 (-0.52%)
Dow: 53,559.99 (roughly flat, -0.02%)
All three still closed out the week higher (the Nasdaq +0.8%, the S&P +0.5%), so Friday's dip was a pullback inside a still-positive week, not a reversal. Per Investor's Business Daily, the Nasdaq held above its 21-day average line and the S&P stayed above its 50-day line, both constructive signs, but Friday's higher volume on the Nasdaq counts as a distribution day, one mark against the trend. IBD's own recommended exposure level stayed in the 60%-80% range: still confirmed uptrend, just worth some caution. Small-cap and growth-stock indexes had a rougher day, the Russell 2000 fell 1.4% and slipped below its 50-day line.
Beginner note: a distribution day is a session where a major index falls on volume higher than the day before, a sign institutions may be selling. One distribution day isn't a warning by itself; five or six clustered within a few weeks is what actually threatens an uptrend. Today's Nasdaq session is the first one worth logging.
On today's calendar
No major U.S. economic data due. Today opens the week quietly by design, the real releases start tomorrow.
The week ahead. Tuesday brings the JOLTS report (how many job openings employers had in July), Wednesday brings the ADP private-payrolls report and the Fed's Beige Book, and Friday brings the big one: August's official U.S. jobs report. Several AI-related companies also report earnings later this week, including Dell, Broadcom, NetApp, and Palo Alto Networks.
On the radar: Amazon
$AMZN ( ▼ 2.48% ) was Friday's standout mover in an otherwise rough session. Amazon is the company behind the world's largest online store and, through AWS, the largest cloud-computing business, the servers that run a huge share of the internet's other apps and websites.
The stock jumped roughly 4% Friday to $266.43 after an analyst raised his price target on the stock, citing possible gains from AI-driven shopping tools. That puts Amazon about 7% below its 52-week high of $287.20, and IBD flagged it as building a fresh base with a potential buy point right around that old high.
Why it's worth watching: this is a live example of the N in CAN SLIM, the letter we spent Month 2 on. A stock pushing back toward new highs on a real catalyst, here, an analyst turning more bullish on a specific business driver, is exactly the setup the N is designed to flag. Whether Amazon actually clears $287.20 on strong volume in the coming weeks is worth watching as a real-time example of everything from M2.
ONE FOR THE ROAD
Friday's jobs report is the week's big event. Quick gut call before it lands: does a stronger-than-expected jobs number make a Fed rate hike MORE likely or LESS likely? There's no wrong answer here, the point is just to start connecting jobs data to what the Fed does next. Reply with your call.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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