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Good morning. Today's calendar is light, but it opens one of the busiest weeks of the year: Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report earnings, and the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday.
The Market Gauge
Stocks closed lower on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,623.68, the Nasdaq slipped 0.21% to 25,955.34, and the Dow dropped 652.84 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215.16. Oil jumped about 4% to roughly $103.60 a barrel as tensions between the U.S. and Iran heated up, and American Express fell 3.7% after its revenue came in a bit light. Oil stocks were the bright spot.
For the week, the Dow still gained 0.4%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq lost 0.7%. Small caps did better: the Russell 2000 rose 2%. All three major indexes got back above their 50-day moving averages midweek, then finished the week below that line again. IBD calls it a divided market: AI and chip stocks are badly damaged, while software, consumer, financial, housing and medical stocks offer a surprising number of buying opportunities. Its advice is to stay cautious through the earnings wave but keep a watchlist ready in case the market mounts a broad recovery.
Beginner note: The 50-day moving average is the average closing price over the last 50 trading days. Many investors treat it as a line in the sand for a market's short-term health. When an index keeps crossing back and forth over it, as it did last week, that is a sign the trend is undecided, which is a good time to keep your positions small.
On today's calendar
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 AM ET): A monthly check on factory activity in Texas. It is a smaller report that rarely moves the whole market, so Monday's attention will be on the bigger events later in the week.
Fed decision (Wednesday afternoon): The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, followed by comments from Fed chief Kevin Warsh. IBD says the Fed is expected to hold rates steady but signal that more tightening is likely. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive and can weigh on stock prices.
Big Tech earnings (this week): Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon all report. Investors want to see that these companies will keep spending heavily on AI and that the spending is starting to pay off. Sandisk and Intel report Thursday after the close. Earnings reports can move a stock 10% or more in a day, in either direction.
On the radar: Samsara
$IOT ( ▼ 0.6% ) Samsara makes sensors, dash cameras and cloud software that help companies track and manage their trucks, vehicles and equipment. On Friday, while the Dow fell more than 600 points, Samsara rose 2.60% to close at 44.92. IBD flagged it as breaking out of a cup-with-handle base with a 44.21 buy point, which puts the stock about 1.6% above that entry. The usual 5% buy zone runs up to about 46.42. Its 52-week high is 47.47. One catch: Friday's volume was about 3.1 million shares, roughly 45% below its average of about 5.7 million. Its next earnings report is expected in early December.
Why it's worth watching: A breakout is more trustworthy when big investors pile in, and volume is how you can see that. A common guideline is volume at least 40% above average on the breakout day. Samsara cleared its buy point on light volume, so the move is not confirmed yet. Watch whether volume picks up as it holds above 44.21. If it slips back below the buy point, the breakout has failed for now.
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Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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