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Good morning. The headline indexes looked calm last week. Underneath, the market was narrower than it looked.
The Market Gauge
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,650.50, up 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite closed at 26,522.54, up 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,682.64, down 0.2%.
For the week, the Nasdaq gained 0.7%, its second straight winning week, and the S&P 500 slipped just 0.1%. But the Dow fell 1.7% and the small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.5%, both closing at three-month lows. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, which treats every S&P company the same instead of letting the biggest stocks dominate, fell for a fifth straight week. The 10-year Treasury yield sits right around 5%, a multi-year high, and crude oil fell more than 2% Friday to about $99 a barrel even as bitcoin jumped past $80,500 on a broad crypto rally.
Beginner note: a headline index can look calm while the market underneath it is anything but. The Nasdaq had a good week because a handful of large stocks did well; the Dow, the Russell 2000, and the equal-weight S&P all tell a weaker story. When the “market” and the “average stock” disagree this much, it's worth checking breadth, not just the headline number, before assuming everything is fine.
On today's calendar
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks (5:30 AM ET): remarks from a voting Fed official can move expectations for future rate moves, even outside a scheduled Fed meeting.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (7:30 AM ET): a broad monthly gauge (built from 85 other economic indicators) of whether growth is running above or below its historical trend.
Treasury bill auctions (10:30 AM ET): routine 3-month and 6-month bill sales; the yields they clear at are a quick read on very short-term interest-rate expectations.
It's a light data day by design, no major reports due, which is itself worth noting after a week this choppy.
On the radar: Robinhood
$HOOD ( ▲ 9.12% ) is the trading app that popularized commission-free stock trading and has since expanded hard into crypto and options. The stock jumped 9.1% Friday to $119.82, reclaiming a 112.45 cup-with-handle buy point as part of a broader rally in crypto-linked names after bitcoin topped $80,500. It's still about 22% below its 52-week high of $153.86.
Why it's worth watching: reclaiming a buy point after falling below it is a real, valid signal, not a consolation prize. But at $119.82, the stock is already about 6.6% above that 112.45 pivot, outside the 5% buy zone IBD treats as the proper entry window. That's the distinction worth sitting with: the setup is real, but the entry window on it has likely already passed for now. Chasing a stock further above its buy point means paying for a move that's already happened, not catching the one that's coming.
ONE FOR THE ROAD
The Nasdaq had a good week. The Dow and the Russell 2000 both hit three-month lows. If you only checked one index before deciding how "the market" was doing, which one would give you the most misleading picture right now?
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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