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Good morning. A light calendar today sets up a heavy week: inflation data and Micron’s earnings on Wednesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting near its highest level since 2007.
The Market Gauge
Stocks ended Friday near their session highs. The S&P 500 rose 0.51% to 7,743.41, the Nasdaq composite added 0.48% to 27,068.72, and the Dow jumped 478.62 points, or 0.93%, to 51,828.62. Oil fell on hopes of U.S.-Iran peace talks, and Microsoft led the Dow with a 4% gain after a major Copilot update.
For the week, the Nasdaq gained 2.1% after hitting a record high on Tuesday, and chip stocks led. That strength came even as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.18% and touched 5.23% on Friday, its highest since 2007. IBD calls the market divided: growth stocks are rallying while much of the market sits below its 50-day lines. Its advice is to add exposure carefully, buy close to proper buy points, and exit fast when sell rules trigger. Over the weekend, President Trump said he rejected an Iran offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but expects more talks, and stock futures dipped slightly Sunday night.
Beginner note: Watch breadth, not only the headline index. Last week the Nasdaq rose 2.1%, but the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP), which gives every stock the same weight, fell 0.6%. When a few big stocks carry the index while the average stock slips, the rally is narrow, and narrow rallies are easier to break.
On today’s calendar
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 AM ET): A monthly read on how factories in Texas and nearby states are doing. It is a regional report and rarely moves the whole market, which makes today a quiet one for data.
SpaceX Starship Flight 14: SpaceX plans to launch Starship today, its first flight that earns revenue, carrying 26 Starlink satellites. SpaceX is now a public stock, so a launch like this is company news that can move its shares.
Later this week: Wednesday brings the ADP jobs report (8:15 AM ET), the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and the PCE inflation data (both 8:30 AM ET), then Micron’s earnings after the close. PCE is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve watches most closely, so it matters more than usual with yields this high.
On the radar: Micron Technology
$MU ( ▲ 1.05% ) Micron makes memory chips, the parts that store data in phones, PCs and the AI data centers now buying them in huge amounts. The stock is on the IBD 50 list of leading growth stocks. It closed Friday at 1,082.28, up 0.16% on the day and 6.5% for the week, moving above its short-term highs from August and September. IBD says the stock is actionable here as an early entry. Its main buy point is 1,255 in a cup base, which is also its all-time high, so shares would need to rise about 16% to get there. Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results Wednesday night, and analysts expect earnings to jump about 940% on revenue of roughly $51 billion.
Why it’s worth watching: This is a lesson in earnings risk. A stock can gap 10% or more in either direction the morning after a report, and no stop-loss protects you from a gap. Many growth investors avoid opening a new full position in the days right before earnings, or they buy a smaller amount they can afford to see drop. Watch how Micron trades into Wednesday, then how it reacts after, since the memory stocks tend to move together on its report.
How useful was today's Before the Bell?
ONE FOR THE ROAD
Would you buy a stock three days before its earnings report, and if so, how much smaller would you make the position?
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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