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Good morning. Nvidia beat and raised last night, and so did CrowdStrike, Okta, and Salesforce. Today is about how the market actually digests all of it, not just the overnight pop.
The Market Gauge
The S&P 500 closed at 7,675.70, down 0.02%. The Nasdaq composite closed at 26,130.20, down 0.08%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,463.88, down 0.21%. The Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, fell 0.14%.
Wednesday was a quiet, wait-and-see session ahead of Nvidia's earnings. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, held at 3.3% year over year for July, exactly what economists expected. Treasury yields ticked up slightly anyway.
Beginner note: when an economic report comes in "in line" with expectations, like Wednesday's inflation number, the market often barely reacts. That's not the report failing to matter, it's the market having already priced in the expected outcome ahead of time. The bigger moves tend to come from surprises, a number well above or below what was expected, not from confirmation of what everyone already assumed.
On today's calendar
Weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM ET). The regular Thursday read on new unemployment filings.
Nvidia's earnings reaction is the day's biggest story. The AI chip giant beat estimates and raised guidance, with revenue more than doubling, and jumped in after-hours trading. One caution worth knowing: IBD notes Nvidia has a recent history of falling the day after it reports, often reversing an initial pop. Today's actual reaction, not last night's after-hours print, is what matters.
CrowdStrike, Okta, and Salesforce all beat estimates too and jumped more than 10% in late trading on strong guidance. Watch how all three open, cybersecurity and enterprise software were already under pressure heading into these reports.
Marvell reports tonight after the close. The custom AI chipmaker was already flirting with a breakout above its 50-day line heading into the report.
On the radar: Salesforce
$CRM ( ▲ 21.51% ) makes the customer-management software that much of the corporate world runs its sales and service teams on. The stock closed Wednesday's regular session at 205.62, having just found support at its 200-day moving average, the longest-term trend line covered so far this week (after the 21-day line Monday and the 50-day line Wednesday morning). Then it beat second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates with strong guidance, and jumped more than 10% in late trading, according to IBD, gapping above a 211.34 cup-base buy point in the process.
Why it's worth watching: a stock finding support at a major trend line right before a real earnings catalyst is one of the cleaner setups this methodology looks for, the chart says the sellers are done, and the fundamentals confirm it. Today's open will show whether that overnight gap holds or fades, exactly the kind of follow-through IBD is watching for in Nvidia too.
ONE FOR THE ROAD: IBD says Nvidia has a habit of falling the day after it reports, even after a good number. Does that kind of historical pattern change how you'd trade a stock's earnings reaction, or does each report stand on its own? Reply and let me know.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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