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Good morning. Wall Street wakes up to Micron's record quarter, then gets two early reads on the economy with jobless claims and the ISM factory survey, one day before the September jobs report.
The Market Gauge
Stocks gave back an early rally Wednesday. The S&P 500 closed at 7,651.54 (-19.30, -0.25%), the Nasdaq at 26,861.06 (+63.52, +0.24%) and the Dow at 50,906.05 (-443.87, -0.86%). The small-cap Russell 2000 slipped 0.39%. The S&P 500 finished September with a monthly loss, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq held up best.
The morning news was good. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge cooled more than expected: core PCE, which leaves out food and energy, rose 3.0% from a year earlier in August, down from 3.3% and below the 3.3% forecast. Headline PCE held at 3.4%, under the 3.7% forecast. But the economy also looked strong. ADP said private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, ahead of forecasts, and second-quarter growth was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%. A strong economy keeps pressure on interest rates, so the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 5.29%, its highest level since 2007, and stocks faded into the close. Oil edged up to about $90 a barrel.
The bigger picture: Tuesday evening, IBD had the S&P 500 sitting just above its 50-day moving average and urged caution on new buys. Wednesday's dip leaves the index close to that line, with rising yields still the main headwind.
Beginner note: where a stock or index closes within its daily range tells you who won the day. A market that rises for most of the session and then sells off into the final hour shows sellers took control late, even when the morning headline was good news.
On today's calendar
Weekly jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. ET. How many people filed for unemployment benefits last week. Low numbers mean few layoffs, which is good for workers but can keep the Fed worried about a hot economy.
ISM manufacturing index, 10:00 a.m. ET. A monthly survey of factory purchasing managers. A reading above 50 means manufacturing is growing; below 50 means it is shrinking. Watch the prices-paid part too, since it hints at future inflation. Construction spending comes out at the same time.
Fed speakers, throughout the day. Several Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, are scheduled to speak. Traders will listen for hints about whether the Fed still plans to raise rates.
Micron reaction, at the open. Micron reported record quarterly revenue of $54.23 billion after Wednesday's close, beating the roughly $50.75 billion analysts expected, and guided next quarter to about $61.5 billion. The stock barely moved in early after-hours trading, a reminder that a lot of good news can already be priced in.
Coming Friday: the September jobs report, 8:30 a.m. ET. The government's official count of jobs added last month, and the biggest data release of the week.
On the radar: Cboe Global Markets
$CBOE ( ▲ 5.17% ) Cboe Global Markets runs stock and options exchanges, and it is the only place where options on the S&P 500 index (ticker SPX) and the VIX volatility index trade. On Tuesday, Cboe announced a 25-year extension of its exclusive license with S&P Dow Jones Indices, which keeps those SPX options on its exchange through 2051. The stock closed Wednesday at 275.29, up about 5.2%, on a day when the S&P 500 fell.
Why it's worth watching: investors pay up for a business that owns something competitors cannot copy, and an exclusive license on one of the most actively traded index options is a clear example. News-driven jumps are worth following for a few days afterward. A stock that holds most of its gain shows that big buyers believe the story; one that gives it all back tells you the excitement was short-lived.
How useful was today's Before the Bell?
ONE FOR THE ROAD
Wednesday brought good inflation news and still closed lower. When the headline and the closing price disagree, which one do you trust?
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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