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Good morning. Three losing sessions in a row now, though the number that actually tracks the damage did not move yesterday. Wholesale inflation lands at 8:30 AM ET, and Oracle and Adobe report after the close.
The Market Gauge
Here's where Wednesday finished:
S&P 500: 7,636.36 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq: 26,253.34 (-0.64%)
Dow: 52,380.66 (-0.77%, a fall of 405 points)
The same two pressures as Tuesday, for a third session. U.S. crude rose 3.3% to $96.05 a barrel, a seventh straight advance and its highest close since late May, while Brent gained 3.4% to $101.21 as the U.S. and Iran keep trading attacks. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.83%, its highest since October 2023. Energy was the only one of the S&P 500's eleven sectors to finish higher, up 1.1%. Industrials, consumer discretionary, utilities and real estate each fell more than 1%, and small caps took the worst of it: the Russell 2000 dropped 1.3% to 2,921.23.
Where that leaves the indexes: the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are both still above their 50-day moving averages, which are the levels to watch. The Dow is not. It closed decisively below its 50-day line for the first time since early April. IBD left its recommended stock market exposure unchanged at 60% to 80%.
Beginner note: three consecutive losing sessions sounds worse than what actually happened. Volume fell on both the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange compared with Tuesday, so Wednesday was not a distribution day, and the count we started building yesterday stayed exactly where it was. Hold the three sessions side by side. Friday fell on lighter volume and did not count. Tuesday fell on heavier volume and did. Wednesday fell on lighter volume and did not. Price tells you what happened. Volume tells you who was doing it. Only the days where both point the same way go into the count.
On today's calendar
Producer price index, 8:30 AM ET. Wholesale inflation: what businesses pay each other, before any of it reaches a shelf. Economists expect a 0.4% rise for August and 5.3% over the year, with the core reading that strips out food and energy up 0.3% on the month and 4.6% on the year. With oil higher for seven sessions running, this is the first read on whether that is feeding through. Weekly jobless claims arrive the same minute.
Treasury works both ends of the bond market, 11:00 AM and 1:00 PM ET. First a buyback: the government purchases roughly $6 billion of existing 10-year to 30-year bonds, which is meant to hold long-term rates down. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday, “I'm not doing QE.” Then at 1:00 PM it auctions new 30-year bonds, the last of this week's three sales after the 3-year Tuesday and the 10-year Wednesday. Yields climbed anyway on Wednesday, so the thing to watch is whether today's demand changes that.
Earnings: Oracle and Adobe, both after the close. Two of the biggest reads yet on whether corporate AI spending is turning into actual revenue.
Still ahead. Consumer prices tomorrow. Between today's PPI and Friday's CPI, the Fed's September 16 decision gets settled. The fed funds rate sits at 3.5% to 3.75%, and this is one of the rare stretches where the argument is about a hike rather than a cut.
On the radar: Devon Energy
$DVN ( ▼ 0.41% ) pulls oil and natural gas out of American shale rock, mostly the Delaware Basin across west Texas and New Mexico, along with the Marcellus, the Rockies, the Anadarko Basin and the Eagle Ford. It became one of the country's largest producers in May, when it completed an all-stock merger with Coterra Energy. On a day when ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors fell, energy rose, and Devon rose with it, up 1.2% to $48.98. IBD put the stock on Wednesday's watch list, describing it as “rapidly nearing a 49.72 buy point in a cup with handle,” with a slightly earlier entry at 49.46 off a trendline drawn in the handle. Wednesday's high stopped at $49.46, right at that earlier entry and still short of the buy point itself. The close was $48.98, about 7% below the 52-week high of $52.71.
Why it's worth watching: near a buy point is not at a buy point, and few distinctions cost beginners more. A buy point is the price where a stock finally clears the highest resistance in its base, the level where everyone who bought at the old high and sat through the decline is finally back to even. Until the stock trades through that price on convincing volume, nothing has been settled. Devon reached that earlier entry intraday, then closed back below it, 1.5% under the 49.72 buy point, on 9.4 million shares, slightly below its own recent average. A real breakout usually wants volume 40% to 50% above normal. So the honest reading is watchlist, alarm set, no action. Two things to hold alongside that. What is lifting this stock is a war, and a war premium in oil can leave as quickly as it arrived. And the opposite error is just as expensive: IBD noted that SK Hynix “jumped out of the 5% buying zone” on the same day. The window for a proper entry opens at the buy point and closes about 5% above it. Not before, and not after.
ONE FOR THE ROAD
Devon closed 1.5% under a buy point. If it opened at $50.00 this morning on heavy volume, would you buy it? What if it opened at $52.50 instead? Reply with your answer, and with what changed between the two.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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