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Good morning. Bond yields jumped to their highest level since 2007 on Wednesday, and stocks sold off with them.
The Market Gauge
The S&P 500 fell 0.75% Wednesday to 7,706.03. The Nasdaq composite dropped 1.13% to 26,936.04, one day after a record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 352 points, or 0.68%, to 51,511.59.
The driver was the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to 5.11%, a 19-year high, and the 5-year yield touched 5% for the first time since 2007. A report showed U.S. business activity at its highest level in more than five years, which raised worries that inflation will stay sticky, and U.S. crude oil rose 1.8% to $92.16 a barrel after five straight down days. Traders now price in about a 71% chance of a quarter-point rate hike in October. The selling was broad: the small-cap Russell 2000 tumbled 1.8%, and the Dow, the Russell 2000 and the equal-weight S&P 500 all sit near three-month lows.
IBD's read: growth stocks are still in good shape overall. Software and energy were strong, and chip stocks gave back only a fraction of their recent gains. IBD says whether Wednesday was a healthy pullback or the start of a short downtrend will likely depend on oil prices and Treasury yields.
Beginner note: when Treasury yields rise, safe government bonds pay more, so investors need a better reason to own stocks. Growth stocks feel it most, because more of their expected profits sit years in the future, and those future dollars are worth less when rates are high. That's why a jump in yields often hits the Nasdaq harder than the Dow, as it did Wednesday.
On today's calendar
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): the weekly count of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, a quick read on whether layoffs are picking up.
New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): how many newly built homes sold last month. With mortgage rates above 7%, it shows how much higher borrowing costs are weighing on buyers.
Trump-Xi meetings: Chinese President Xi Jinping landed outside Washington Wednesday night, with key meetings set for today. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. and China agreed to extend their trade truce by two months, to Jan. 10. Trade headlines can move chip stocks and other companies that sell heavily into China.
Costco earnings (after the close, call at 5:00 PM ET): fiscal fourth-quarter results from the warehouse retailer, one of the clearest reads on how everyday shoppers are spending.
On the radar: Palo Alto Networks
$PANW ( ▼ 0.94% ) sells cybersecurity software and firewalls that protect companies' networks from hackers. The stock jumped 5% Wednesday to 393.30 while the Nasdaq fell 1.1%, clearing a handle-like formation with a 383.12 early buy point, according to IBD. That puts it about 2.7% above the entry, inside the 5% buy zone. Cybersecurity peers CrowdStrike and Okta rose about 4% as investors moved into security software while the biggest tech stocks slid.
Why it's worth watching: a stock that rises while the market falls is showing relative strength, the idea behind the L in CAN SLIM. It also shows the trade-off of an early entry: buying at 383.12 gets you in lower, but with less confirmation than waiting for a full base. IBD says a new base with a 398.88 buy point could form after Friday's close. With yields pressuring the market, the M still says to go slowly on new buys.
How useful was today's Before the Bell?
ONE FOR THE ROAD
Which stock on your watchlist held up best during Wednesday's selloff? Reply with the ticker and tell us why you think it held.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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