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Good morning. Today has a real catalyst: the June inflation report lands at 8:30 AM ET, and JPMorgan kicks off bank earnings season before the open. Oil is still in the headlines after yesterday's spike.
The Market Gauge
Here is where the market finished on Monday:
S&P 500: 7,515.34, down 0.79%
Nasdaq: 25,873.18, down 1.55%
Dow: 52,498.64, down 0.26%
What drove it: Stocks pulled back from Friday's record after crude oil prices spiked. Per Investor's Business Daily, the move followed news that the U.S. would reinstate a blockade over the Strait of Hormuz, a fresh escalation with Iran. Higher oil lifted energy names but pressured most everything else, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq took the brunt of it as memory-chip stocks fell hard.
Beginner note: Look at the split. The Dow slipped just 0.26% while the Nasdaq dropped 1.55%. A single headline can hit fast-growing tech far harder than the broad market. And one red day right after a record high is not, on its own, a broken uptrend.
On today's calendar
Two events matter today, and one of them can move the whole market:
Consumer Price Index (CPI), 8:30 AM ET: the government's monthly inflation report, and the single number the Federal Reserve watches most closely when it sets interest rates. A hotter-than-expected reading can rattle stocks, a cooler one can lift them. This report covers June, so it predates yesterday's oil spike, but it sets the inflation backdrop heading into the rest of the week.
JPMorgan Chase reports before the open: the first big bank of earnings season. Banks lend to businesses and households across the whole economy, so their results and their commentary get read as a health check on everything else. Goldman Sachs and other financials follow later this week.
On the radar: Apple
$AAPL ( ▲ 4.01% ) did something worth noticing yesterday. On a day the Nasdaq fell 1.55%, Apple rose about 0.6% and touched a fresh 52-week high before closing at $317.31. While many former high-flyers sit well below their peaks, one of the world's most valuable companies (market cap about $4.66 trillion) is trading within roughly 2% of its all-time high, helped by strong iPhone sales and record revenue from its services business.
How it has been acting: Apple's 52-week range runs from $201.50 to $323.45, and it closed Monday near the top of that range. Rising on a day the market falls has a name, relative strength, and it is one of the clearest signs that large investors want to own a stock.
Why it is worth watching: Tonight's Trader Tuesday features Nicolas Darvas, a touring dancer who made a fortune in the 1950s by buying stocks pushing into new-high territory rather than beaten-down bargains. Apple holding near its highs while others languish is that idea in the present tense. A new high is not a reason to chase blindly, but strength tends to attract more strength, and learning to tell real leadership from a falling knife is a skill we will build all year.
ONE FOR THE ROAD
When a stock rises on a day the whole market falls, does that strength make you more interested or more cautious? Hit reply and tell me why.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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