Good morning. Today is day one of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, with the interest-rate decision due tomorrow afternoon. The megacap earnings wave starts Wednesday, so today is mostly a waiting day, the market holding its breath before a run of big events.
The Market Gauge
Monday was calm and mixed, and the split between the indexes told the story. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led, up 0.51% to 52,210.08, while the S&P 500 barely moved, up 0.02% to 7,413.18, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq eased 0.18% to 24,932.08. The big driver was oil: crude prices plunged about 7.5% to near $82.61 a barrel after the United States and Iran paused their attacks, which lifted industrial names in the Dow. Weighing on the Nasdaq were the chip stocks, with Nvidia down about 5% on a report that it may help finance a large data center for OpenAI, and memory-chip names such as Micron and Sandisk falling further, Sandisk sharply. Per Investor's Business Daily, smaller companies held up best, with the Russell 2000 outperforming the major indexes.
Beginner note: when the Fed meets, it is deciding where to set short-term interest rates, and that decision ripples into almost everything, the rate on a mortgage, the interest a company pays to borrow, and how much investors are willing to pay today for profits a company will earn years from now. That is why a single sentence in tomorrow's statement can move the whole market. Today, the market mostly waits.
On today's calendar
The Fed sits down. The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting today. The rate decision and written statement come tomorrow afternoon, followed by a press conference. A rate increase is considered unlikely, but the odds rose to about 36% after last week's jump in oil prices, so every word will be parsed.
No megacaps today, but they are close. None of the Magnificent Seven report today. Microsoft and Meta are up on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Earnings season is at full volume around them, with more results due through the week.
Later this week, the economy's report card. The first estimate of second-quarter GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, arrive Thursday, and a key measure of wage growth closes the week on Friday.
On the radar: Ooma
$OOMA ( ▲ 4.43% ) is a small company with a simple business: it sells internet-based phone and communications service to homes and small businesses. It is worth watching today not for its size but for its chart. Ooma closed Monday at $20.78, up 3.8% and near its 52-week high, and it is finishing a cup-with-handle, the pattern from our Day 7 lesson, just below a buy point that IBD pegs at $21.18. In other words, it is sitting right under the rim, not yet through it.
Why it is worth watching: this is a live version of the discipline the Sunday pattern lessons keep repeating. The pattern itself is not a signal to buy. The signal is the breakout, the moment the stock pushes decisively above that $21.18 pivot on strong volume. A stock a few percent below its buy point is one to put on a watchlist and wait on, not to chase. Watching a setup approach its pivot, and holding your fire until it actually clears, is a skill worth practicing long before real money is involved.
ONE FOR THE ROAD
The Fed decides rates tomorrow. In one sentence, and without looking it up, what do you think higher interest rates tend to do to stock prices, and why? Reply with your best guess. We will unpack the real answer when Month 11 covers the Fed.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.