In partnership with
The ice cream shop that makes money when it's cold
28 Wishes sells ice cream in Los Angeles. Below 70°F, sales fall about 20%. The weather is out of their hands. Rent isn't.
So the owners started putting about $20 a day into Kalshi weather markets, taking the cold side. The days that keep customers away now pay something back.
This is hedging. Big companies have done it for decades, buying protection against bad weather, fuel spikes and rising rates. It used to take a broker, a trading desk, and an order size no corner shop could meet.
Kalshi opens it up. Contracts on weather, fuel prices, inflation, tariffs and regulation, starting at a few dollars. Take a position on the outcome that would hurt you. If it hits, the payout softens it. If it doesn't, the contract expires and the good month was the point.
Good morning. It's Election Day, and stocks head into it split after Monday's sell-off in AI names, with job openings data at 10:00 AM ET and AMD's earnings after the close.
The Market Gauge
Monday was a tale of two markets. The Dow rose 213.67 points, or 0.41%, to 51,983.98, but the S&P 500 slipped 0.51% to 7,541.40 and the Nasdaq fell 1.07% to 25,164.36. The AI trade took the hit. Marvell Technology said it plans to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal valued at $115 billion, and both stocks dropped hard: Marvell fell 12.7% and Lumentum 18.6%. Oracle slid nearly 9% after saying it plans to sell $10 billion in stock and $10 billion in bonds to pay for its AI buildout, and memory and storage chip stocks sold off too. Home improvement names held the Dow up: Sherwin-Williams gained 5.9% and Home Depot 3.6%, and Amazon rose 2.2% after an upgrade. U.S. oil fell nearly 8% to settle at $96.46 a barrel after the White House signaled it wants a diplomatic deal with Iran, and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.89%.
IBD's read: the S&P 500 lost more ground against its 50-day moving average, while the Nasdaq is still holding above its 200-day line for now. Growth stocks lagged, with the IBD 50 ETF down 1.8% on the day and about 10% for the year. IBD came into the week urging a defensive stance with limited exposure, and Monday did not change that. After the close, Apple and Palantir both beat estimates but fell more than 3% in late trading.
Beginner note: The Dow tracks just 30 big companies and is weighted by share price, so a few strong names can lift it on a day most tech stocks fall. When the Dow and the Nasdaq point in opposite directions, look at which kinds of stocks are leading. On Monday it was consumer and materials stocks, like home improvement retailers, not tech.
On today's calendar
Election Day: The midterm elections are today, and U.S. stock markets are open normal hours. Results come in tonight, after the close, so any market reaction would show up Wednesday. IBD notes Wall Street strategists see a big Democratic win as a risk for AI stocks.
JOLTS job openings (10:00 AM ET): A government count of open jobs, hires and people quitting. Lots of openings and quits usually mean employers still need workers, a sign the economy is holding up.
Factory orders (10:00 AM ET): How many new orders U.S. factories received. It adds detail to Monday's ISM survey, which came in at 55.5, above the 54.6 expected. A reading above 50 means manufacturing is growing.
AMD earnings (after the close; call at 5:00 PM ET, per AMD's investor site): AMD makes processors and AI chips, so its report will be read as a check on AI spending after Monday's chip sell-off. Astera Labs also reports after the close, according to IBD. Friday brings the jobs report at 8:30 AM ET.
On the radar: Dollar Tree
$DLTR ( ▼ 3.27% ) Dollar Tree runs nearly 9,000 discount stores across the U.S. and Canada. On Monday it rose 3.53% to close at 138.60, a day the Nasdaq fell 1.07%. IBD says it cleared a 137.07 buy point from a cup-shaped base, an early-stage base, which is a plus. Monday's close left it about 1.1% above that entry, inside a buy zone that runs about 5% higher, to roughly 143.92, and about 2.7% below its 52-week high of 142.40. IBD gives it a Composite Rating of 95 and an EPS Rating of 90, and says its relative strength line is climbing. Analysts expect earnings per share to jump 37% this year, then hold flat in 2027. Volume was about 11% above average.
Why it's worth watching: Breakouts are more reliable when volume runs at least 40% above average, a sign big funds are buying. Dollar Tree's breakout came on only modestly higher volume, so it has not passed that test yet. Watch whether the stock holds above 137.07 in the next few sessions, and notice the flat 2027 estimate: strong growth this year matters less if it stalls next year.
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Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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