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Good morning. This is the busiest day of the week. The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, and after the close, Microsoft and Meta report earnings. Two events, both capable of moving the whole market.
The Market Gauge
Tuesday was a split market, and the split is the story. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.03% to 52,747.32, back near its highs on strong earnings from Coca-Cola and Sherwin-Williams. The S&P 500 added 0.21% to 7,428.78. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.22% to 24,876.91 after touching its lowest level in nearly three months during the day. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose about 0.2%. Underneath, chip and AI stocks sold off again, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF down 3.45%, while health care, financials and aerospace names were bought. Crude oil fell another 4.1% to $79.26 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.6%.
Beginner note: here is the detail worth keeping. An equal-weight version of the S&P 500, which counts every one of the 500 companies the same instead of letting the giants dominate, rose 1.2% to a brand new high on the same day the Nasdaq fell. That combination has a name: rotation. Money is not leaving the market, it is moving inside it, out of the crowded AI names and into groups that had been ignored. Rotation is normal and healthy. It is also why judging "the market" by the four or five stocks you hear about on the news will mislead you.
On today's calendar
The Fed decides, 2:00 PM ET. The rate decision and written statement come out at 2:00, and Chairman Kevin Warsh takes questions at 2:30. Traders put the odds of a rate increase today at roughly 31%, down from 36% on Monday, so the base case is no change. The wording of the statement, and what Warsh says about the months ahead, will matter more than the decision itself.
Microsoft and Meta report after the close. Two of the largest companies in the S&P 500. Watch what they say about capital spending, meaning how much they plan to pour into AI data centers. Alphabet raised its spending plans last week and the market did not love it. These two answers will set the tone for the AI trade going into Amazon on Thursday night.
Cybersecurity gets a read too. Fortinet reports after the close as well, one of the larger names outside the megacap group.
One caution on oil. Crude has swung hard in both directions this month on Middle East headlines, and it can reprice overnight while you sleep. Treat any single day's move as one input, not a trend.
On the radar: Enova International
$ENVA ( ▲ 0.2% ) is a Chicago company with a plain business: it lends money online to consumers and small businesses who cannot easily get a loan from a big bank, under brands such as NetCredit and OnDeck. It is worth watching today for two reasons. First, it reported second-quarter results last week, beat Wall Street's estimates and raised its guidance, and Investor's Business Daily noted it pushing to a new high on that earnings tailwind. Second, it is a lender, which means today's Fed decision runs straight through its business.
The numbers: Enova closed Tuesday at $249.04, down 1.16% on the day, sitting within about 2% of its 52-week high of $253.49. Its 52-week low is $99.61. It is up about 58% so far this year against roughly 8.5% for the S&P 500. Market value is around $6.2 billion, which makes it a mid-sized company, not a household name.
Why it is worth watching: this is the "C" in CAN SLIM standing right in front of you. Tonight's lesson opens Month 2 with why earnings drive stocks, and Enova is the live example. A company posts a quarter that beats expectations and lifts its own forecast, and the stock pushes to a new high. That order matters. The earnings came first, the price followed. Beginners often work backwards, finding a stock that has already moved and then hunting for a reason. Learn to read the report first.
ONE FOR THE ROAD
Yesterday we asked what higher interest rates do to stock prices. Today, a harder one: if the Fed leaves rates alone at 2:00 PM and the market sells off anyway, what would that tell you? Reply with your best guess.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.