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He has a newsletter on beehiiv. So do Codie Sanchez, Jay Shetty, David Begnaud, Colin & Samir, and Joanna Stern.
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Good morning. No major economic reports are due today, so the session is a wait for Meta and Tesla, which both report after the close.
The Market Gauge
Stocks mostly rose Tuesday. The S&P 500 gained 0.28% to 7,712.57, the Nasdaq slipped 0.02% to 26,424.82, and the Dow jumped 529.85 points, or 1.02%, to 52,495.88. Oil drove the day: U.S. crude spiked above $110 a barrel early, then reversed to settle near $101 on reports of possible U.S.-Iran peace talks. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.12%, small caps in the Russell 2000 rallied 1.7%, and healthcare led the sectors. Trading volume rose from Monday, which IBD counted as a positive.
IBD's read: the market is trying to find its footing. The Dow and S&P 500 just topped their 50-day moving averages, while the Nasdaq stalled right at that line. IBD suggests 40% to 60% invested, with cautious buys in consumer, medical and insurance stocks, and it flags Meta's report and spending plans as the key test for AI stocks, whose charts still need repair.
Beginner note: the 50-day moving average is the average closing price of the last 50 sessions. After a decline, that line often acts like a ceiling, because investors who bought higher use the bounce to sell. An index that closes above it and holds for several days is sending a stronger signal than one that pokes through for an afternoon.
On today's calendar
No major economic reports. The government calendar is empty today, so earnings and oil headlines will do most of the moving. The next big data point is weekly jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Tuesday's late reports react at the open. SpaceX beat estimates after the bell and said it and Tesla have formed committees of independent directors to study a possible merger. Super Micro Computer raised its sales outlook well above its prior range. Netflix and Intuitive Surgical fell in extended trading. Expect these names to open with big moves; first-hour swings after earnings can reverse, so watching is often wiser than reacting.
Meta Platforms earnings, after the close (call 4:30 p.m. ET). Investors care less about last quarter's profit than about how much Meta plans to spend on AI data centers. That spending is revenue for chip and server makers, which is why one company's report can move a whole sector.
Tesla earnings, after the close. Tesla's third-quarter results land the same evening, one day after the SpaceX merger news, so expect questions about that on the call.
On the radar: Eli Lilly
$LLY ( ▲ 2.83% ) Eli Lilly is the world's largest drugmaker, best known for its obesity and diabetes treatments. The stock rose 3.49% Tuesday to 1,283.66 on volume about 20% above average, after hitting an intraday high of 1,311.75, a new 52-week high. Along the way it moved past a flat-base buy point of 1,292.65, per IBD, but it closed about 0.7% below that level. IBD gives Lilly its top Composite Rating of 99 and an EPS Rating of 98, and analysts expect profit to grow 42% this year and 38% in 2027. Its relative strength line, which compares the stock with the S&P 500, hit a new high. Lilly reports third-quarter results on Oct. 29, with its call at 10 a.m. ET.
Why it's worth watching: a breakout is judged on the close, not the intraday high. Lilly traded above its buy point and then gave the move back before the close, so the breakout is not confirmed yet. Earnings in six trading days add a second question: a stock bought just before a report can gap sharply either way overnight, and a stop-loss can't protect you from a gap.
How useful was today's Before the Bell?
ONE FOR THE ROAD
When a stock you like clears its buy point during the day but closes just below it, do you buy, wait for a close above, or move on?
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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