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Good morning. Today has two big moments: the Federal Reserve's rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, then Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after the close.
The Market Gauge
Growth stocks led on Tuesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,722.60, the Nasdaq gained 1.18% to 26,477.81, and the Dow edged up 15.99 points, or 0.03%, to 52,377.57. Boeing dragged on the Dow, falling nearly 11% after missing profit estimates and saying it will take longer to raise 737 Max production. Broadcom rose 4% after a Wall Street Journal report that it helped Anthropic finalize a $63 billion debt deal. Chip stocks were strong, while oil refiners sold off. Oil fell 1.8% to $99.90 a barrel, and the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5%. Consumer confidence came in at 91.7, well above the 80.4 economists expected.
IBD says the market is trying to bounce back. The S&P 500 reclaimed its 50-day moving average and sits 1.5% below its all-time high, the Nasdaq is close to its 50-day line, and the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 1.2% to get back above its 200-day line. Still, with the Fed today, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon this week, and the midterm elections next Tuesday, IBD's advice is to stay cautious on new buys, keep exposure moderate, and be ready to exit quickly if a new position goes wrong.
Beginner note: The 50-day moving average is the average closing price over about the last 10 weeks of trading. Many investors treat it as the line between a healthy short-term trend and a struggling one. When an index climbs back above it, as the S&P 500 did Tuesday, it is a good sign, but one close above the line is a start, not proof. Watch whether it holds over the next several days.
On today's calendar
No major economic reports this morning: The schedule is light before the open, so the morning may be quiet as traders wait for the Fed.
Fed rate decision (2:00 PM ET): The Federal Reserve announces whether it will change interest rates, followed by a news conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders see a 93% chance the Fed holds rates steady today, per the CME FedWatch Tool, but about a 78% chance of a hike in December. Listen for hints about that next move.
Alphabet earnings (after the close): Google's parent reports after trading ends, with a call at 4:30 PM ET. Investors want to hear how much it plans to spend on AI data centers and how much cash it is generating.
Microsoft earnings (after the close): Results come after the close, with a call at 5:30 PM ET. Microsoft's cloud growth and spending plans can move the whole AI group, not just its own stock.
Coming Thursday (8:30 AM ET): The first estimate of third-quarter GDP, the PCE inflation gauge and weekly jobless claims all arrive at once.
On the radar: Nucor
$NUE ( ▼ 1.99% ) Nucor is the largest U.S. steelmaker, producing steel and steel products for buildings, cars, energy projects and more across the U.S., Canada and Mexico. On Tuesday it jumped 5.22% to close at 270.79 after earnings, on volume of about 2.4 million shares, roughly 77% above its average of about 1.36 million. IBD says the stock cleared a trendline entry near 266, offering an early entry, while its official buy point from a consolidation is 280.11, which is also its 52-week high. That leaves Nucor about 3.3% below the official entry. The company posted a 121% earnings jump to $5.80 a share as revenue grew 32% to $11.3 billion, and it guided for fourth-quarter profit in line with or a little above the third quarter. IBD just added it to its Leaderboard list.
Why it's worth watching: Nucor shows the difference between an early entry and an official buy point. Buying near 266 gets you in sooner and at a lower price, but the stock has not yet cleared its old high at 280.11, where sellers may show up. Waiting for 280.11 means paying more, with more proof behind the move. Heavy volume on Tuesday is a plus: it suggests big investors were buying. And since earnings are now out, the next report is not expected until late January, so there is less near-term earnings risk.
How useful was today's Before the Bell?
ONE FOR THE ROAD
Fed decision or Big Tech earnings: which do you think moves the market more this week, and why? Hit reply and tell me.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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