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Good morning. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET today, capping two straight losing sessions for the market.
The Market Gauge
Here’s where Tuesday finished:
S&P 500: 7,585.73 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq: 25,981.57 (-0.78%)
Dow: 52,093.11 (-0.63%)
Energy and interest rates drove the selling. Crude oil surged more than 4% to $105.83 a barrel, touching $106.75 intraday, on growing worry about Middle East supply. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.995%, a fresh 19-year high near 5.02% intraday, as bond traders leaned further into the idea that the Fed hikes today. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slipped just under their 50-day moving averages, which sit near 7,611 and 26,051. The Dow, closing at 52,093.11, has now finished six straight sessions below its own 50-day line, and that average has started bending lower after cresting last week. Investor’s Business Daily’s recommended market exposure holds at 40%-60% for now.
Beginner note: a stock or index slipping under its 50-day moving average for a session or two is not automatically a broken uptrend, especially heading into a scheduled event like today’s Fed decision. What matters more is whether it closes there on heavy volume, which is called a distribution day, or just brushes the line and bounces. Watch what the market does after 2 PM ET today, not just what it did getting there.
On today’s calendar
Fed rate decision, 2:00 PM ET. The Federal Reserve wraps a two-day policy meeting and announces whether it is raising its benchmark interest rate. Markets currently price in better than a 90% chance of a quarter-point hike. A higher rate raises the cost of borrowing everywhere, and it tends to hit growth stocks hardest, since their value leans more on earnings still to come than earnings already booked.
The “dot plot,” also 2:00 PM ET. Alongside the decision, Fed officials publish their individual projections for where rates go the rest of the year. Investors often react more to this than to the decision itself, since it hints at how many more hikes could follow.
Fed Chair press conference, 2:30 PM ET. Kevin Warsh takes questions half an hour after the announcement. His tone here, more than the rate move itself, usually decides whether the market’s initial reaction sticks or reverses.
Salesforce investor day. The Dow component lays out fresh financial guidance for Wall Street, a day after previewing new AI tools at its Dreamforce conference. Watch whether the market reacts to the guidance or stays fixated on the Fed.
On the radar: Guardant Health
$GH ( ▼ 2.03% ) makes blood tests, so-called liquid biopsies, that screen for and monitor cancer without a surgical tissue sample. Tuesday it jumped 4.65% to a new closing high of $175.65, briefly clearing its 176.58 flat-base buy point intraday (the day’s high touched $179.30) before easing back just under that level by the close. Its relative strength line, which tracks a stock’s performance against the S&P 500, hit a new high the same day, according to IBD.
Why it’s worth watching: a stock making new highs, with its relative strength line making new highs too, while the major indexes sit below their 50-day averages, is exactly the kind of divergence CAN SLIM investors look for. Leadership often shows up in individual stocks before it shows up in the indexes. We get into flat bases properly in Month 4, but the short version here: watch for a close above 176.58 on strong volume. That would be the real signal, not today’s intraday poke above it.
ONE FOR THE ROAD
The Fed decides at 2 PM ET today. Are you watching the market’s first reaction, or waiting to see how it actually settles by tomorrow’s close? Reply and tell me.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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