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Good morning. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge lands at 8:30 a.m. ET and Micron reports after the close, so today has a possible market mover at each end of the session.
The Market Gauge
Stocks slipped Tuesday. The S&P 500 closed at 7,670.84 (-0.17%), the Nasdaq at 26,797.54 (-0.09%) and the Dow at 51,349.92 (-131.59, -0.26%). The Dow and the small-cap Russell 2000 hit fresh three-month lows.
Bond yields did most of the damage. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to nearly 5.26% after touching 5.29% intraday, a 19-year high, and the 30-year yield reached 5.61%, its highest since 2002. Consumer confidence fell to 81.9, its lowest reading since 2014, and job openings came in below forecasts at 7.08 million. Oil helped a little, falling 3.5% to $89.38 a barrel. Chip stocks were the bright spot: the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 1.15% and the IBD 50 growth ETF (FFTY) gained 1%.
IBD's read: the market has held up well given how fast long-term yields have climbed, but holding up is not the same as thriving. The S&P 500 sits just above its 50-day moving average. IBD suggests caution on new buys, quick exits from losing positions, and continued work on watchlists.
Beginner note: when the major indexes dip but a basket of growth leaders rises, money is rotating between groups, not leaving the market. Watching which groups hold up on down days shows you where large investors are putting their money.
On today's calendar
ADP employment report, 8:15 a.m. ET. A private-sector estimate of how many jobs companies added in September. It is a preview of the labor market, not the official government count.
PCE inflation, 8:30 a.m. ET. The Fed's preferred inflation measure. Economists expect core PCE, which leaves out food and energy, to ease to 3.2% in August from 3.3%, per IBD. A cooler number could pull yields down; a hotter one could push them higher.
GDP, third estimate, 8:30 a.m. ET. The final revision of second-quarter economic growth. Revisions this late rarely move markets unless they change the picture by a lot.
Micron earnings, after the close. Analysts expect earnings per share to jump 947% as revenue climbs 354% to $51.3 billion, per IBD. Micron makes memory chips for AI data centers, so its outlook can move other memory stocks like Sandisk and Seagate tomorrow.
On the radar: Nvidia
$NVDA ( ▼ 0.72% ) Nvidia designs the graphics processors that power most AI data centers, along with chips for gaming PCs. The stock closed Tuesday at 227.21, down 0.72%, after briefly climbing above a trendline entry of 229.98 during the session (the day's high was 232.82). IBD also marks a cup-with-handle buy point at 234.76, about 3.3% above Tuesday's close and just under the 52-week high of 236.54. Volume was about 98 million shares, below its average of roughly 124 million.
Why it's worth watching: a stock that pokes above an entry during the day and then closes back below it has not confirmed a breakout. Many growth investors wait for a close above the buy point on above-average volume, which shows that big buyers are behind the move. Nvidia is a clean example to follow this week: note where it closes relative to 229.98 and 234.76, and how much volume comes with it.
How useful was today's Before the Bell?
ONE FOR THE ROAD
If this morning's inflation number comes in hotter than expected, would you watch the 10-year yield or your watchlist stocks first, and why?
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Read the full financial disclosure.
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